Special edition · October 2026
Who controlled each link, from wellhead to market, in four eras. In 1970 foreign majors ran the chain and the state collected rent. The 2030 outlook, built on 100-year leases and private marketing, looks structurally closer to 1970 than to 1990.
1970 remains the all-time peak. The 2030 bar is a range, not a forecast.
Nine links of the chain, from ownership to the fiscal take. Pick one era to read a single column.
Foreign majors built the chain and kept it until nationalization in 1976. PDVSA then owned every link, bought refineries abroad to place its heavy crude, and by 2010 still held the chain while output and maintenance slid. The July 2026 regulation does not mention PDVSA at all.
1970–2010 from the historical record: concession-era company reports, PDVSA annual reports, OPEC statistics and the Hydrocarbons Law and its reforms.
2030 outlook from Venezuela's hydrocarbons implementing regulation (Official Gazette, July 2026), US and Venezuelan government statements on the NABEP agreement (August 2026), Rystad Energy, S&P Global, OPEC, company statements, and Reuters, Bloomberg and CNN reporting. Figures current to September 2026; output in crude terms and approximate. Analysis, not investment advice.